Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Ethanol Market Commentary - August 11th

The agriculture markets have calmed down from last week's volatility caused by the Russian ban on wheat exports.

Corn futures in the US remain in the $4/bushel range for front month futures.

The EIA stats this week for ethanol are neutral.  Production remained essentially unchanged.  Inventories fell another 200,000 bbls but remain 1,000,000 bbls higher than the first week of June.

Gasoline production continues to decline dropping 350,000 bpd over the last two weeks.  Gasoline blended with ethanol declined slightly.  The ethanol blending penetration was 84.5%.

Wheat prices in Europe have backed off the peaks reached last week.

The USDA WASDE report is due on Thursday - this has the potential to stir up agriculture price volatility.

European T1 prices have paused for the moment as shipments from the US begin to appear in the market.  The arbitrage from the US to Europe has tightened.  T2 prices have caught up with the big rise in T1 prices but there is noise in the market about the high cost of wheat pushing T2 prices further.

Brazil prices remain steady.

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